What was going to be a philosophical podcast largely about uncrewed systems has been completely upended by a major change to AUKUS Pillar One. The plan from the get go has been for the US to sell us two second hand Virginia class SSNs, followed by a brand new one. But overnight that’s been changed – and on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced that the new one has been dropped and we will now be sold three second hand boats.
The government has gone into spin overdrive, claiming that this is a massive triumph of planning – but it’s not. If it is such a brilliant idea, why not have made this the aim from the first day? The government has repeatedly insisted that there is a plan and that plan is being adhered to, no matter what. Well, that plan has been dropped and now we have a new plan. In all probability the explanation is even simpler – the US has changed its mind and is no longer prepared to sell us new submarines because their own needs come first.
In the medium term, under the previous plan Australia would also buy an additional 2 new Virginias if the British designed SSN AUKUS runs late – as it almost certainly will. What has happened to that plan? Does it still exist – or will Australia now only be permitted to buy more used SSNs, taking the total to five?
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The Optimal Pathway Analysis is progressively revealed to be the ‘over-egged’ sham that it always was. It really is modern day retelling of Hans Christian Anderson’s ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes.’
If the UK and Australia could roll-back time, then a tripartite agreement with France for the continuous evolution and a scaled manufacturing/sustainment capability of the Suffren Class would make so much more sense than the hubristic ambition of AUKUS Pillar 1.
Unfortunately, time is the one commodity that can never be recovered in project failure. Canada is being courted with incredibly generous industrialisation and capability offers in the forms of the 212CD and KSS-III. Surely either of these programs would suffice for Australia while we pour money and focus into the development of both passive and unmanned subsurface monitoring capabilities to address the inevitable capability gap.
Indeed. Also the ROK is developing an SSN using LEU French technology – so no problems with disposal or nuclear proliferation. They aim to have something in the water by the mid-2030s, and knowing the Koreans they will succeed. We should be talking to them – but of course we won’t because AUKUS has nothing to do with submarines, it’s all about a return to the Anglosphere and the enduring comfort of the US relationship.
At the same time, the US is getting ready to throw us under a bus as the Hegseth ambush of Marles in Singapore amply demonstrated. The US will do whatever it wants – including the strong possibility of selling us nothing at all.
I don’t know if you have seen the Kim Carr comment today, but he nails from the perspective of Labor’s left: “Aukus commits Australia to an extremely expensive, high-risk, long-term military project that deepens dependence on an increasingly erratic US, while delivering uncertain strategic benefits decades into the future,”
I assume the government will now retaliate by labelling him an agent of the Communist Party of China for daring to question the benefits of AUKUS. They don’t handle dissent at all well. Too bad Richard Marles does not yet realise that the US has thrown him – and Australia – under the bus.
Richard is much more concerned about getting his handicap down
Exactly.