The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Korea Chair has released a new Beyond Parallel analysis exploring growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, in light of the White House’s acknowledgement this week of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s possible trip later this month to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin.
This is only the latest evidence of a growing military alignment between North Korea and Russia. Russia-North Korea cooperation may extend beyond conventional arms deals and food/energy assistance, possibly to advanced technology for satellites, nuclear-power submarines, and ballistic missiles. A Russia-North Korea axis also complicates the security picture both in Ukraine and on the Korean peninsula. Even technical support by the Russian military to advance or modernize North Korea’s conventional forces could embolden Kim to adopt more coercive, even lethal use of force.
While there are limits to what the U.S. can do in response to the new Russia-DPRK axis, the authors of this analysis find that there are some policy options Washington could consider. The United States can push the envelope in terms of the deliverables from the Camp David trilateral summit in August such as multi-domain trilateral exercises and enhanced information sharing. Washington could also declare that the U.S. and its allies will not rule out neutralizing missiles in flight or on the launchpad. Washington should also list Russian entities and individual involved in any DPRK arms deals and seek similar sanctions from like-minded parties, as well as warn Beijing about neither participating nor condoning the Russia-DPRK axis. Finally, the U.S. should continue to draw attention to Russia-DPRK cooperation at upcoming forums like UNGA and APEC this fall by downgrading intelligence for public consumption as part of the DNI transparency program.