Even though the worst for Australia is hopefully over in terms of the spread of COVID-19, the reverberations will continue for some time and might have lasting security consequences. China seems to have the pandemic well under control and Europe is also making progress. The big worry remains the US, which has by far the highest number of deaths in the world, and that total is continuing to rise.
With less than two months to go until the Presidential election, the country is still struggling with the basics of curbing the rate of infections – and as the weather cools the problem could worsen. This is largely because as more people stay inside the spread of the virus becomes easier. Some experts say that the rate of transmission is 20 times higher than if the same group were outside where social distancing is easier and not as much air is being recirculated.
The political consequences range from an overwhelming victory to Joe Biden because of enormous dissatisfaction with President Trump’s handling of the crisis, through to an unclear result that will be challenged in the courts with the situation unresolved for months or even years. Very few expect to see an overwhelming result in Trump’s favour – even with the electoral college system – because he is an average of 10 points behind the challenger, including in some crucial swing states. But having said that, 2020 is certainly the strangest year in living memory and it is no longer possible to make predictions with a high degree of accuracy.
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