The decision to acquire nuclear powered submarines is arguably the most strategically significant acquisition decision Australia has ever made. However, in a cart-before-the horse manner it is a choice that has been made before we know which sort of submarine we will get, where it will be built, how much it will cost – and especially the delivery timeframe. There seems to be a general assumption that the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK is going to fix everything for us.
It’s a bit like Miss Australia being all aflutter, having been engaged to that smooth talking but ultimately untrustworthy Mr Macron, only to now be courted by both that distinguished Mr Biden and the charming Mr Johnson with his strange hair. Both so powerful and rich – and both of them speaking a language we can understand! “How could they be interested in little me, when all I have to offer is a huge country that is an unsinkable aircraft carrier, with limitless mineral resources and cash to burn on all those wonderful products that they keep showing me pictures of?” The most obvious limitation of AUKUS is that it seems to be a high-level agreement for information sharing and cooperation on various topics – most importantly submarines, but also hypersonics and cyber – rather than a binding security treaty. Whether it will survive a change of President in the US is unknown, but if Donald Trump is re-elected in 2024 one of the first casualties might be the NATO alliance and all of the security fallout that will accompany its disintegration. Similarly for the UK, a future Prime Minister might not see pro-Brexit anti-France AUKUS in the same positive light.
The Virginia-class attack submarine USS Delaware (SSN 791) at Naval Submarine Base New London before getting underway, March 26, 2022. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist Joshua Karsten)
To move the submarine decision along, the government has announced that the process has been simplified and that Australia will acquire either a Virginia class from the US or an Astute class from the UK. There will be no Australian-specific submarine. There won’t even be a hybrid class, seeking to combine the best features of the two designs – it will simply be one or the other.
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It is wise to continue developing Australia’s conventional submarines as new light metal battery technology is set to make significant progress in the coming years. Depending upon how the nuclear option progresses (or if it doesn’t), it could offer a credible alternative.
While the production line for the last two UK Astute Class is still operating, it takes between 8 and 10 years to deliver each vessel; in addition, the production line for their nuclear reactors has already closed. In contrast, the US is producing a Virginia Class in about a 3 year rhythm. Another advantage of the US vessel, is the commonality with our current Collins Class in their Combat System and Weapons outfit – this will assist in speeding up training and growing the most challenging component of the Project; manning the new vessels.