Teal Group: Air defence surveillance radars after Ukraine

Teal Group forecasts the 10-year US-supplier-available market for air defence surveillance radars and ground systems to be worth more than $12 billion over the next decade. New radar systems beginning production now for the US, the revamped ground combat needs displayed in Ukraine in 2022, and the Chinese surveillance balloon that surprised and worried the commander of USNORTHCOM and NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) in 2023 all add up to a burgeoning market for Ground Radar Systems, from fixed site, continent-wide Over-The-Horizon (OTH) radar networks to truck and trailer-mounted highly mobile air defence systems. The US Air Force has had definite plans for more than a decade to replace its legacy AN/TPS-75 tactical air surveillance radars with the phased array AN/TPY-4 Three-Dimensional Expeditionary Long-Range Radar (3DELRR), with Initial Production Units now funded and nearing production. The USMC’s mobile AN/ TPS-80(V) G/ATOR (Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar) is the Marines’ future multi-role ground radar system, now entering production to fill the role of at least five recently in-service radars for the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF). It is perfectly positioned as the shoot-and-scoot sensor needed for HIMARS and other shooter systems in Ukraine – as well as for NATO nations and others worried that the battle may be coming their way. Teal Group also forecasts that recently increased US Navy funds for AN/TPS-71 ROTHR (Relocatable Over-The-Horizon Radar) Upgrade & Support will continue, but we are adding a new forecast for Future United States OTH Radars, perhaps for a nationwide OTH Radar network as originally planned in the 1980s. Lockheed Martin’s USAF+FMS FPS/TPS-117/77 Family The AN/FPS-117(V) & TPS-117/77/TPS-B34 has established itself as one of the primary long-range air defence surveillance radars in the worldwide export market. It is a competitive area, with the major European radar firms also well-established internationally. By mid-2017, Lockheed continued to announce, “All of Lockheed Martin’s TPS-59, FPS-117, TPS-77 and TPS-77 MRR radar systems, of which there are over 180 in the world, continue to operate as designed. No system has ever been taken out of service and the radars regularly advance through new technology and sustainment opportunities. The radars have demonstrated they are capable of performing well past their original service lives.” With at least ten new TPS-77 radars contracted for five nations from 2015-2020, all with new Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology, in 2020 Teal Group forecast the TPS-77 would see continuing new production, and several new small orders were announced in the early 2020s. Production of these legacy but continuously upgraded systems will continue, along with substantial upgrade and support funding. Teal Group estimates these radars will be worth more than $1 billion in our forecast period. Lockheed’s TPY-4 3DELRR (3D Expeditionary Long-Range Radar) Northrop Grumman’s AN/TPS-43E and AN/TPS-75 remain the principal US Air Force tactical air surveillance radars, although they have become very difficult to service and upgrade due to their age. The Air Force has had definite plans for more than a decade to replace its legacy TPS-75 with the phased array Three-Dimensional Expeditionary Long-Range Radar (3DELRR), now designated AN/TPY-4. In mid-2009, the USAF chose two contractor teams to develop prototypes for the 20-month Technology Development (TD) phase, to be followed by a 4-year development program. In October 2014, the USAF awarded 3DELLR EMD to Raytheon, relatively on schedule, for a C-band gallium nitride (GaN)-based radar (later designated AN/TPS-81). Eventual full-rate production was to deliver 29 total systems, with a total USAF acquisition goal of 35 units at Full Operational Capability (FOC). Ten years later, in February 2020 the USAF budget stated, “Due to chronic technical challenges rooted in the current EMD contractor’s proposed TPS-81 design, and subsequent schedule delays,” the USAF began conclusion of Raytheon’s EMD contract in January 2020. By February 2022, the Air Force had instead chosen Lockheed Martin as the AN/TPY-4 3DELRR production contractor. In April 2022, Program Executive Office Digital executed the Lot 1 initial production option for Lockheed Martin to produce two units, designated IP1 and IP2. By early 2023, all nine planned Initial Production radars were contracted and funded to Lockheed, with all due to be complete and delivered by 2025. After the first nine systems, USAF funding is in place for about four radars per year through our forecast period – worth about $1.1 billion in total. But Teal Group forecasts production will now ramp up soon after 2025, and we have included a more front-loaded USAF production run in our forecast, with a total of at least 45 USAF radar systems procured. We have also included the beginnings of a substantial undetermined 3DELRR production forecast – especially for FMS and international sales – which we expect to continue through next decade. Total funding forecast includes almost $3 billion for production, RDT&E, and support of Lockheed Martin’s TPY-4 3DELRR and near-term variants. Northrop money for Marines – and Ukraine – TPS-80 G/ATOR The mobile AN/TPS-80(V) G/ATOR (Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar) is the US Marine Corps’ future multi-role ground radar system, to fill the role of at least five recently in-service radars for the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF), with production of about 50 new G/ATOR radars currently planned (down from 63). G/ATOR satisfies the USMC’s Air Defense and Air Surveillance (AD/AS) requirement for the Marine Air Command and Control System (G/ATOR Block 1), the Counter Fire/Counter Battery Targeting requirement (G/ATOR Block 2), and it will eventually satisfy the Air Traffic Control requirement (G/ATOR Block 4). G/ATOR Block 2 achieved IOC in February 2019. G/ATOR Block 4 is to conduct development in FY24-FY25 with testing in FY26. G/ATOR has been specifically designed as a Marine Corps program with high mobility – originally it was to be carried on the back of a HMMWV. Today’s war in Ukraine has shown how wars for most of the world do not involve total air dominance and fixed-base security – as the US and US Army have had for decades. Instead, the sensors and systems needed in Ukraine (and potentially in Poland or Romania…) need the same scoot-and-shoot-and-scoot capability that HIMARS has so superlatively displayed in operations with Ukrainian forces in Ukraine. G/ATOR will have this mobility, and according to the USMC’s G/ATOR program office, G/ATOR has already been tested and operationally utilised this way in both the Pacific and Europe. Not that this means the world will all buy G/ATOR, or the Marines will buy 100 of them. There are many international radar systems which will compete for worldwide acquisitions. But G/ATOR is well-placed as a brand-new system of the right type for many militaries today (including in Eastern Europe), and a few decades of US defence industry support for developing continuing upgrades is a certainty. G/ATOR is not quite proven yet, but in a few years (or sooner) international sales could pick up to totals in the 20s or 30s or more this decade. G/ATOR is not cheap, which could hurt international sales but will likely not affect the big buyers when the need is there. Annual funding from the US DoD already runs to $300-400 million or more. And once a hundred or more G/ATORS are in service world-wide, including with NATO nations, they will remain cutting-edge with upgrades for decades. With our increased USMC production line in this year’s forecast, our Undetermined line is now primarily for international buyers. When in full-rate production, Teal Group forecasts G/ATOR will be worth more than a half-billion dollars annually, with G/ATOR funding totaling more than $4 billion in our forecast period. Raytheon’s TPS-71 ROTHR + China’s Balloon = $3 Billion in Future US OTH Radars? Raytheon’s AN/TPS-71 ROTHR (Relocatable Over-The-Horizon Radar) network provides valuable surveillance for the Coast Guard in anti-drug smuggling operations. It has been the United States’ primary drug interdiction radar for more than two decades, sweeping 4 million square miles of coverage area and tracking 4.5 million aircraft per year in the Caribbean Sea and South America. In 2020, ROTHR aided in the seizure of 26 metric tons of cocaine from drug smugglers attempting to cross into US territory. The US Navy-funded ROTHR is also the primary detection system for border security for the Joint Interagency Task Force South. Upgrade funding began increasing in the 2020s. In March 2021, the US Navy awarded a $146 million, five-year contract to Raytheon Intelligence & Space (RI&S) to continue operating and maintaining ROTHR at six locations (but only three radars…) in Puerto Rico, Texas, and Virginia. The US Navy’s TPS-71 ROTHR system was planned during the Cold War as a network of 12 radars, but the collapse of the USSR led to the termination of funding for the program beyond the engineering development model and three subsequent production versions. In February 2023 following the days-long transit of the United States by a Chinese “surveillance balloon,” Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of USNORTHCOM and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), told reporters, “It’s my responsibility to detect threats to North America. I will tell you that we did not detect those [previous] threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out.” VanHerck, a four-star general essentially in charge of US homeland defense, has long supported upgrading US sensing capabilities – to include over-the-horizon radars such as the TPS-71 ROTHR. This was a direct call to the media and the public to pressure the DoD to finally fund new OTH Radar systems. Or possibly even re-start the original comprehensive border-surveillance ROTHR network planned in the Cold War. But the DoD has had increased OTH Radar funding in mind for a while, as a major TPS-71 ROTHR upgrade program was contracted and announced less than a month after the Chinese incursions were admitted. In March 2023, Paul Ferraro, President of Air Power at Raytheon Missiles and Defense, announced that Raytheon Technologies will serve as the lead systems integrator for maritime upgrades to the US Navy’s ROTHR radar, which will be used to detect ships and aircraft from up to 3,000 kilometers, focusing especially on craft smuggling drugs into the United States. Raytheon’s ROTHR upgrades will include installation of digital receivers and high-power transmitters, and advanced tracking capabilities and advanced clutter mitigation. And with the Chinese balloon incursions suddenly stoking media and public fears, Teal Group believes there may be new programs soon to greatly increase US border surveillance capabilities. A major new OTH Radar program is suddenly much more likely. Initial funding (of plans and perhaps early RDT&E) will likely remain classified, but production of major OTH Radar installations will be hard to hide, so there may be a major new Program of Record in a few years, or sooner. For now, Teal Group forecasts that recently increased TPS-71 ROTHR Upgrade & Support funding will continue, but we are adding a new forecast for Future United States OTH Radars, perhaps for a nationwide OTH Radar network as originally planned in the 1980s. These OTH Radars will be worth more than $3 billion in our forecast period, including nearly $3 billion that is still uncontracted and available. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Kym Bergmann at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Director of Sales Graham Joss at [email protected]