Australia will never have the military force structure to undertake every necessary defence and security task. No nation does – that’s why funding and personnel realities always will require careful prioritisation for the force and operational tasking.

For aerospace maritime surveillance capability – and ignoring organic capabilities onboard Royal Australian Navy (RAN) ships – Australia’s future capability is based on the P-8A Poseidon fleet of 14 aircraft, a fleet of MQ-4 Triton Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS), of which only three aircraft have been endorsed by Government, and employment of the MC-55 Peregrine Electronic Warfare (EW) aircraft and satellite surveillance. While not a specifically stated role for the Project Air 7003, MQ-9B SkyGuardian’s multi-domain operations and, in particular, maritime operations in support to the Joint Force, appear likely and necessary.
With this relatively small maritime aerospace Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare (ISREW) force structure, one may ask how capable the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is for meeting potential operations across the continuum of peacetime operations, grey zone operations and high-end conflict. On pure numbers, and noting Australia’s broad area of strategic interest, the challenge is significant.
To highlight the demands of maritime ISREW tasks in the peacetime context, although it might fairly be portrayed as a grey-zone operation, the following analysis highlights the challenges the ADF faced in surveilling two Chinese intelligence collection ships off the Queensland coast during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2021 (TS21) in July 2021. The role the MQ-9B SkyGuardian, manufactured by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI), may have taken in the operation is then analysed and its value stands out. All information used in this analysis is from open sources.
In the lead-up to TS21, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) deployed two Auxiliary General Intelligence (AGI) ships – the Tianwangxing and Haiwangxing – to operate within Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and outside the 12nmi territorial limit. These PLAN AGI aimed to gather broad intelligence on the exercise and its participants. The ADF and, in particular, RAAF P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and response aircraft were deployed to monitor these vessels, including their position, movement, equipment and electronics/communications transmissions. Continuous, 24 hours a day monitoring was necessary, including during their approach to and departure from the exercise area off Shoal Water Bay. It is assumed that the total P-8A monitoring operation lasted around four weeks, with the dedicated TS21 exercise period lasting two weeks.
The P-8A was well-suited to the task of monitoring the PLAN AGI, albeit with far greater capabilities than needed for this mission. When operating from bases like RAAF Amberley or RAAF Townsville, the P-8A would have been capable of remaining on-station in the area of interest for around 6 hours. Noting serviceability constraints, continuous coverage for the period of operations in the exercise area would have required 4-6 aircraft, and at least that number of crews. The standard crew for a P-8A is nine personnel. A sizeable number of support personnel would also have been required at the forward operating base (FOB). The maximum fuel for a P-8A is 34,000 kg. Assuming five sorties per day, 70 sorties (560 hrs.) would have been required across the two-week exercise period to achieve 24-hour coverage.
Better Utilisation of Assets
Clearly, there were also AGI surveillance missions before and after the exercise period. The total fuel consumed across the two-week exercise period would have been around 2 million kg. U.S. Government and GA-ASI sources indicate that the operating cost of the P-8A is around 10 times higher than the MQ-9B. With Australia’s force structure of 14 P-8As, it is clear that this single operation probably consumed around half of the available P-8A capability. In considering a MH370-type search, which stretched over months, such an activity would be incredibly expensive, draining and distracting for the P-8A fleet.
Now imagine a situation in which Australia faced a concerted and protracted grey zone threat from an adversary, around our coastline, or in our northern approaches. The P-8A fleet’s ability to provide adequate coverage would be tested and unlikely to be sufficient, particularly if more than one area of operations was required. And should the P-8A fleet be required for high-end operations, employing Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), strike and other combat-focused roles, where would the ADF turn for support for grey-zone ISREW tasks? With a fleet of possibly just three MQ-4 Tritons, which are likely to be tasked on more distant strategic surveillance tasks, how usefully might the MQ-9B fleet being acquired under Project Air 7003 be employed during grey-zone operations?
The MQ-9 series of aircraft are eminently suited to the sometimes-tedious maritime ISREW tasks and even maritime strike. Current MQ-9 operators are using it in this role and most future customers are focusing on such employment, rather than solely for support to Land forces.
MQ-9B SkyGuardian: The Right Tool for Job
In addition to its baseline fit of a powerful EO/IR system (the same as the P-8A) and Lynx Multi-Mode Radar (MMR), the MQ-9B can be fitted with ELINT/COMINT systems, a dedicated and more powerful MMR, along with an Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver. A key attribute of the MQ-9B is its range and endurance. In a maritime configuration suited to the TS21 ISREW mission, a SkyGuardian would have a mission endurance between 24-30 hours. If operating from RAAF Townsville or RAAF Amberley, a three-hour transit each way would be required, offering 18-24 hours on-station. Three MQ-9B aircraft (although feasible with two) and two Ground Control Stations would be sufficient for the operation. With a crew of five (one pilot, one sensor operator, two payload operators and one mission intelligence controller), three crews are required to cover a single sortie. Since the MQ-9B possesses considerable automation for operation and data management, operator workload is minimised. With 28 sorties to cover an operation 14 days in length, the SkyGuardian offers a very credible and cost-effective solution, while preserving lifetime on the strategic value of the P-8A.
The maximum fuel load for a MQ-9B is just over 2,700 kg – around 8% of the P-8A fuel load, while the SkyGuardian is capable of 3.5 times greater on-station time than the P-8A. Fuel usage during a contingency could be very important, particularly for a protracted operation along with a significantly smaller carbon footprint. This is not intended to point out deficiencies on the P-8A, instead it is intended to highlight that the MQ-9B, as an adjunct capability to the P-8A, can both preserve the precious P-8A lifetime useability and decrease the cost to Australia while extending that very same P-8A for more important missions.
Further, the MQ-9B is a less complex airframe and its operational support requirements are much lower than larger, manned aircraft. Customers of the MQ-9 series of aircraft have operated single aircraft in excess of 7,000 hours per airframe in a year – a figure much in excess of any manned platform, whether military or commercial. The number of ground support personnel for the MQ-9B is small, with no more than 12 personnel required at a FOB to support a TS21-type ISREW activity.
The P-8A Poseidon is an extremely capable aircraft, but this comes at a higher operating cost. Accordingly, its use is best reserved for high-end mission where other assets cannot perform its role. The MQ-9B SkyGuardian can perform a large subset of the P-8A maritime ISREW missions, yet it exhibits significant advantages for operating costs, workforce, FOB footprint and fuel usage. It is an ideal platform for demanding and force-fatiguing grey zone and other tasks such as search and rescue operations, along with traditional ISREW roles due to its very long endurance and cost-effectiveness.
As such, the SkyGuardian must be considered for ADF Joint Operations, which include maritime ISREW and strike to ensure the force is structured and postured for likely contingency operations.
Australia’s strategic objective to shape-deter-respond cannot be achieved by any one Defence capability, fielded or planned. However, the MQ-9B can operate cost-effectively across these objectives, in multi-domain operations, to complement and extend the operational value other ADF capabilities and those of Australia’s allies.
Summary
Adding the MQ-9B to the Australia military force structure has dual benefits. It greatly increases Australia’s aerospace maritime surveillance capability, and it protects the RAAF investment in the P-8A to perform the most challenging missions. Additionally, the cost savings of using the MQ-9B for the more mundane, continuous long-term operations, instead of the P-8A, pays for the acquisition cost of the MQ-9B.