Triton production freeze – an opportunity for the RAAF?

Triton production freeze – an opportunity for the RAAF?

Every cloud has a silver lining, right? That is a very apt metaphor for the situation concerning the Triton MQ-4C – the High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) uninhabited aerial systems being acquired as part of AIR 7000 Phase 1B. The RAAF has contracted for one of these massive aircraft – with five more to come. A seventh Triton remains on the RAAF’s wish list.

At first the Presidential budget request for Defense spending – made public on February 10 – looked to have jammed a giant spanner into the spokes of that wheel by stopping construction of Tritons for the next two U.S. fiscal years. It is worth remembering that these are unique, starting on October 1 and finishing on September 30. This might be an important detail, because each U.S. fiscal year straddles two Australian financial years.

The move appears to have come as a complete shock to everyone – and the USN has not provided any reasons, at least not publicly, as to why they have chosen to do this. Stopping production completely – rather than just scaling it back – is a drastic and harmful move, hurting not only prime contractor Northrop Grumman but also disrupting the entire supply chain. Restarting production after a two year break is also not a trivial exercise. Australia was not given any advanced warning, and we only found out during a meeting with the USN program office when they received the bad news. So much for the concept of consulting in advance with allies – especially as Australia has committed an extra $200 million to the program in addition to the purchase price so that we are involved in the co-development of the system.

That is the down side. However, Northrop Grumman – and possibly the USN – see this as a great opportunity for the RAAF. They contend that if we want to bring forward the order of all five Tritons into the 2020-2021 U.S. fiscal year, we will receive the lowest possible price – and in addition Australian industry will have $58 million worth of additional orders. This is because Northrop Grumman and their various suppliers have a clear commercial imperative to keep the production line open and so they and their partners are presumably willing to manufacture the RAAF aircraft at close to cost to secure the deal.

The USN presumably has only two positions in all of this. The first is that they have their doubts about the program and are using budget pressure as an excuse for a two year delay as a prelude to cancelling the whole thing – or they are still committed to the 68 Tritons and have to deal with a bad situation in the best possible way. If it is the latter – which seems far more likely – they will be very grateful for Australia bringing forward our order to keep the production line running. There are several precents for this: Australia has previously helped smooth out USN purchases of Super Hornets and separately Aegis combat systems, to think of only two cases.

To take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity, Australia will need to make a decision in the next three months. Northrop Grumman says that the RAAF will not need to find an extra cent – presumably meaning that existing funds allocated for our Triton program for the next two financial years will now be sufficient for five aircraft if spent in the U.S. 2020-21 equivalent. This looks as if we will receive five MQ-4Cs for the same amount as we have already set aside for three or four, which indeed would be an exceptionally good deal. On the other hand, we would not want to be left with a small orphan fleet – hence the criticality of ongoing talks with our “partners,” the USN.

Speaking to the media generally – and certainly not exclusively to any particular outlet, as some have claimed – Northrop Grumman Australia Chief Executive Chris Deeble (a former senior RAAF officer) explained:

“The Triton industry team recognizes that pausing production would have a negative impact on the timely delivery of this capability to the warfighter and we are committed to working with various stakeholders to sustain Triton production and ensure our US and Australian customers receive this critical capability.

“The Triton program is progressing well, with two aircraft now in Guam, representing the first operational deployment of Triton, allowing the system to provide vital maritime ISR capabilities in one of the world’s vital trade regions. These two aircraft are the first in what is planned to be a 68 aircraft fleet providing critical 24/7 maritime surveillance for the US Navy around the globe.

“It’s important to recognize that Triton represents a critical maritime ISR capability. Triton’s engineering and sensor suite gives it a unique ability to operate over open oceans at high altitudes in excess of 24 hours, with the ability to rapidly descend and ascend in altitude to get a closer look at vessels or other items of interest. Triton is able to maintain over-watch and relay near-real-time data to allow manned systems to act on relevant intelligence. No other system could replace the high-altitude long endurance capabilities provided byTriton. This system will vastly enhance Australia’s common operating picture and ability to protect its national interests across the maritime domain.

“The proposed production pause may represent an opportunity for the Australian government to bring the Triton capability forward, while ensuring affordability. Production slots opened up by the U.S. Navy could potentially be filled by Australian aircraft. This would ensure earlier delivery of assets to Australia while protecting affordability for both Australia and the United States.”

Caption: Triton MQ-4C in Guam. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Ryan Brooks/Released)