We record this episode with a sense of impending doom now that we know what Trump administration Liberation Day looks like – and it’s bad.
The US is voluntarily withdrawing from world leadership, and it would not be a surprise if NATO, the IMF and the WTO are next. Not that you will hear a peep from our politicians or most of the media, who simply cannot imagine anything other than a comfortable world led by Washington. If anything, our national security apparatus is even worse, saying we should not offer moral support to Canada or Denmark – or anyone else – because “it’s got nothing to do with us”.
What an utterly disgraceful attitude – and it explains the poor quality of so much recent decision making.
Then some powerful words from Canadian Prime Minister Steven Carney warning that the world has changed forever. If only our politicians could show a similar level of leadership.
It’s time to start diversifying sources of military supply right now – more local production and strengthen relationships not only with Europe but also South Korea, Japan and Singapore.
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I agree. Liberation day was really the US retreating back into isolationism. It has effectively decoupled itself from the Global Economy. Next step will probably be withdrawing from its military alliances.
I don’t think there will be any coming back from this. Future presidents are unlikely to reverse the situation.
It’s serious stuff. Not a word about it will be spoken by any mainstream Australian politicians.
Here is what I think Australia should do.
1. Sign the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (this limits the nature of future US basing in Australia) – NZ and Indonesia are already signatories.
2. With NZ, apply for full admission to ASEAN.
3. Sign the upcoming ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement.
4. Lift defence funding to 2.5% of GDP and re-write the National Defence Strategy to cooperatively fulfil the role of anti-piracy, anti-mine, anti-trafficking, protection of offshore infrastructure, contribution to regional stabilisation and disaster response (jointly with ASEAN nations), and the sovereign denial of the air-sea gap to the limits of Australia and NZ’s Exclusive Economic Zones (ANZ defence agreement).
5. Live in a prosperous, respectful and peaceful rules-based region.
Agree with all of that – and start replacing US military equipment where possible. There are some easy substitutions – KC390 instead of C-130J; Chunmoo instead of HIMARS etc. Halt the retirement of the Tiger ARH.
I’ve always believed the ADF has had an unhealthy obsession with U.S. equipment and supply chains to the exclusion of all else. If the ADF had gone with the STH Korean option we would have a lot more than two as well as the tech to go with it. I think that is where the ADF should start, cancel the Second Trache of HIMARS, it’s to late to cancel the original order and order the Whitetail ( the Australian Chunmoo) as a replacement, Cancell the Collins LOTE as well as the Virginia pipe dream and begin construction of a conventional replacement, the KSS would be the best bet as it has a VLS system. A program of one or two build in Sth Korea as well as a further one or two built in SthKorea but assembled at Osborne at the same time one built in Sth Australia under Sth Korea guidance . The remaining fleet all built in Australia. The Hunter Class built to the Missile option offered by BAE capped at 3. Beg Luressens forgiveness and start building C90 corvettes optimised for Anti Submarine work and get back a MCMW capability. Un fortunately we (at this point of time) have little or no option than to rely on U.S.Aircraft as nobody we would buy from has what we need. So we would have to manage the decoupling carefully. The Navy and Airforce should be given priority as they are Force Projection we require.
The Korean L-SM air defence system should be seriously considered, especially if Sth Korea can provide technology transfer to manufacture locally. If they have demonstrated in Poland that the Chunmoo missiles can be made with the same industrial base that make the HIMARS why are we not considering this in Australia as a start? maybe we would already have local missiles ready to launch?
I agree with your comments . Sth Korea has offered a transfer of Technology clause with all the equipment they have offered to Australia ( please correct me if I’m wrong) so I believe engagement with Sth Korea should be a priority, especially as the U.S. may not be as safe and reliable a supplier as thought, as for the Chunmoo, I believe the strategic mobility against the HIMARS was the reason ( the reason given anyway) it was discounted. I’m not sure if the fact that the K239 carries twice the Missiles was considered but at such a lower price more could have been ordered ( quantity has a quality of its own) and as the C130 is being replace (albeit with the J model ?) that problem could have been sorted as well.