The election result is a surprisingly strong win for Labor, but it’s important to understand the basis for that.
Yes, the Coalition ran a poor campaign and the ALP a good one – but the real reason for a reversal in poll numbers during the last 4 months is because of the Trump Effect, similar to what has occurred in Canada.
It’s important not to lose sight of the big picture – Trump’s tariff war risks destroying the global economy and Australia will not be insulated from the consequences. Let’s go down memory lane with what happened in this region last time the US did this in 1930 with the Smoot Hawley tariffs.
Most people know what happened in Europe with the rise of the Nazis in Germany. Less well known is the effect on Japan, which was also devastated by the tariffs and used their colony of Korea to seize all of Manchuria in 1931, the precursor to the full blown invasion of China six years later.
The new Australian government should be doing its best to deter the actions of the Trump administration not aid and abet them.
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Albanese has stated Marles is likely to retain his portfolio.
Does he think he’s doing a good job, in which case why did he take the budget off him, or doesn’t he care?
Not that the alternative seemed to have any more ideas apart from a belated “We’ll spend an extra $21B on something or other”
Three years time and the hole we are in now will seem like a very shallow dip in the ground
I have little doubt that he believes he is doing an amazing job. He’s not the sort of person to have any self-awareness.
Very informative and interesting. The take on the Federal election is spot on for both parties and the history lesson was fascinating and well reasoned. Thank you as usual. Lets hope that history does not repeat itself.
Though I will say I have little hope that any politician in Australia will do anything but continue in ignorance and hubris.
Thanks. Unfortunately, I see little chance of the political trajectory changing.
Sorry you’ve been unwell.
A really interesting recount of the events leading to the Pacific War. Much appreciated.
On domestic politics – Josh Wilson is being taken to the knife-edge on preferences against a Climate 200-backed candidate in Fremantle, with a primary vote swing against him of around 5%. I understand that opposition to AUKUS was a significant factor at the Fremantle community forums. Wilson has been an articulate and prominent voice of caution within the ALP regarding AUKUS. This may end up saving his seat from a community backlash.
In summary, the community licence for AUKUS seems to be dramatically collapsing.
Thanks Mike. It’s hardly surprising that neither Labor nor the Coalition want any public debate about AUKUS – let alone some form of Parliamentary inquiry into it.
Kate Hulett – the Climate 200 candidate maintains this position on AUKUS:
“1. Launching a Parliamentary Inquiry into the AUKUS deal to examine how it came about and how we can exit the agreement as fast as possible.
2. Re-prioritising funds from AUKUS to invest in the real needs of our community, including addressing the housing crisis, energy transition and cost of living.
3. Prioritising a defence strategy that diversifies our reliance from the US. I will not support the major parties’ dangerous, unstable and costly alliance with Donald Trump, J. D. Vance and Elon Musk.”
https://www.kateforfremantle.com/aukus_statement
This history repeating itself pilgrimage would be incomplete without acknowledging Japan’s proposal that the 1919 covenant of the new League of Nations should have a clause defending the principle of racial equality. White supremacist Australian Prime Minister Billy Hughes was the clause’s most aggressive critic and led the movement to defeat it, insisting the clause threatened the very existence of White Australia.
There is a clear relationship between that defeat and Japan’s subsequent belligerence – war crimes against the West, particularly Australia.
The same malnourished mentality underlines Australia’s pathetic clinging to a fading anglosphere via AUKUS. A worthless agreement embraced by Australia’s childish denial – rejection of China’s inevitable role as regional – global superpower.
After extensive evaluation of America’s WW2 victory in the Pacific, China’s industrial capacity to sustain high intensity warfare over the long term vs America’s ability to inflict devastating but limited strikes, is a mirror image of the circumstances that led to Japan’s defeat.
Australia will NEVER defeat or reconcile China by fattening the morbidly obese short term profits of the US Military Industrial Complex. Australia must TRULY ACCEPT its place in ASIA, and focus on self sufficiency alongside developing regional alliances to secure any chance of a rules based order over vital trade routes.
You are quite correct pointing out the role of Billy Hughes.
The “anglosphere” is a linguistic, cultural and historical reality not to be shunned or pilloried, nor should it be a mindless driver of decisions.
We can and should be independent minded while also being a friend in Asia without rejecting this countries background.
My 2 cents.
Well the dust has settled on the Election and as far as Defence is concerned nothing seems to have changed. I eagerly await any new developments on AUKUS , having run a campaign that demonised Dutton’s Nuclear Power platform, it seems odd that a Nuclear Submarine is some how less demonic. Not replacing Marles is something I dreaded ( expected but Dreaded) and it came to pass, so I don’t think anything will change. The flooding of Cabinet with Marles’s right wing allies will give Albanese pause and I expect a Leadership Challenge before long. The one upside will be a new Defence Minister . It is what it is . Thanks again for the great Podcast and hope you recover ..