We have been at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security (IODS) conference in Perth – so plenty of naval things to talk about. First, ASA Head VADM Jonathon Mead refreshingly and honestly said that there were many obstacles to overcome before nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered, a nice change from the previous rhetoric that everything was fine.
Speaking with well qualified industry people from the US and UK, the consensus is that Australia is already a decade behind where we need to be with factors such as training and infrastructure. Then a remarkable offer from the Korean government to deliver the first General Purpose Frigate by 2029 and the next two by 2030 if either Hyundai or Hanwha are selected.
Finally, what do people not understand about the Luerssen corvette offer? It’s all about maintaining the Arafura supply chain and getting very rapid capability to the RAN. And we do a bit of character assassination along the way.
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Very informative Podcast Kim, thank you once again. I honestly don’t know how you manage to keep from pulling your hair out. I’m gobsmacked at the level of incompetence you have to deal with, it’s indicative of the utter disregard Marles and his staff have for any acquisition that isn’t AUKUS or from the United States. It is common knowledge that both Japan and the U.S. are looking at Sth Korea for Joint Projects on Ships and Weapons , so how is it Australian DoD doesn’t seem to be aware of what Sth Korea can offer. The Luerssen offer of Corvettes as a quick capability fix should not only be grabbed with both hands but doubled (12 Corvettes ) and the four Arafura in production as well as the two already launched developed into Mine warfare boats. This would give the R.A.N a capability to use them in the ASW role and as a Defence of the Coastal and Archipelagos to our north, as well as freeing the Tier 1 and 2 for the Heavy lifting. This would also allow the Hunter (if we have to have them, we might as well get the best out of them) to be built as the Guided Missile Frigate/Destroyer option , since the Luerssen Corvette could shoulder the ASW role. I was also relieved to hear that Marles role as MoD has been made basically Ceremonial, not that he a clue anyway. Thanks again for the Podcasts .
Thanks for the feedback. I’m astounded by the obvious lack of analysis now taking place within Defence. It’s extraordinary that for so many people no matter the question, the answer is automatically AUKUS. Their minds have been collectively warped.
Thanks Kym once again for your insightful analysis. There is a paucity of informed debate on Defence issues in this country and your voice is sorely needed.
Regarding Defence as a whole it is clearly dysfunctional/incompetent which is why I believe you are not going to get any relief from pulling your hair out any time soon.
Just a quick summary to prove my case.
1/ MQ-9B Reaper UAS under Project Air 7003, planned purchase in 2016 cancelled right before delivery commenced in 2022.
Result: Border surveillance flights slumped by 22% (as reported in The Australian 29/07/24) from what is the minimum required. Expensive assests such as P8A Poseidons being tasked to fill the gap. Meanwhile border incursions rising again. This is exactly what the MQ-9B was supposed to provide.
2/ 12 OPV’s ordered from Luerssen. Stuff up with Main armament, money spent for no capability. Delays in delivery of a very simple ship for reasons not made public. Then midway through production a reduction of the buy down to six vessels and a refusal to consider even a simple up arming of the vessels to the level of those in service overseas.
Meanwhile the looser of the competition, Austal, has delivered 10 Enhanced Cape Class Patrol Boats to the RAN.
3/ Hunter Class, 9 vessels to replace the 3600 tonne ANZAC class but are at least twice the weight. Supposed to look for a mature design the RAN/Defence chose a ship little more than a power point presentation. First steel has just been cut 6 years after it was chosen. Planned in service date of the first vessel (all going well) of a reduced buy of 6 is currently 2034. Compare that to the delivery timetable of ships made in Korea.
Result: We now have an urgent need for a “Patrol Frigate” in the same weight class as the ANZAC’s for urgent delivery before the end of the decade.
4/ AUKUS (Nuclear Submarines). Cancelled a class of conventional submarines BASED on a nuclear design with a civilian type reactor. We could have reverted these subs to their original nuclear specification easily but we didn’t. We chose instead a convoluted, expensive and delayed aquisition process for no less than 3 types of submarines. A LOTE version of the Collins class, then some second hand Virginnia Class and finally a jointly designed and built in Australia AUKUS class. All for a country that struggles to man the 6 submarines we have.
Result: A rapidly ageing Submarine fleet, Money sent to our AUKUS partners with no return clause nor anything tangible gained but promises from all parties and a plan that requires everything to go right in the USA, Britain and Australia at the same time in all fields involved, Defence, Politics and Industrial. All for a capability that has not been proven to be better for our strategic needs than say the B21.
Other no less note worthy issues
5/ C130J-30 purchase, more modern options ignored, C390, A400M, C2 from Japan etc.
6/ Taipan, BURYING a fleet of fully functional aircraft BEFORE getting replacements, leaving a capability gap both for the military and for civilian emergencies.
7/ B21 not seriously looked at if at all.
8/ Tiger Helicopters not yet near their end of service life replaced by a similar capability but armed drones ignored.
9/ LHD’s over large and unable to deploy our heaviest vehicles in anything but the mildest weather.
10/ Naval Mine warfare the forgotten cousin of the ADF.
I could go on.
If this is not proof enough of incompetence/dysfunction in Defence then I don’t know what is.
Case closed!
The Defence Department itself and the ADF it serves are not fit for purpose.
We in the Defence space need to no longer look at what capability we need, what vessel or missile or such.
We need to look at the real elephant in the room, The Defence department and ADF must change from top to bottom, or in 12 months time we will still be detailing its failures just in a new flavour.
We need a real Defence Minister with the drive and knowledge to change this travesty, Andrew Hastie, does he have what it takes? Marles certainly is not the one.
Best regards Kym
Thanks – and I agree completely with your summary. There is a weird disconnect between the obvious reality of failed and cancelled projects and the official rhetoric that things have never been better.
Does Hastie have what it takes ? his chronic silence on the plethora of clusterf*cks you’ve listed (many perpetrated on his watch as asst Minister Defence) answers that question.
He doesn’t seem particularly interested in Defence and appears very unwilling to criticise the organisation that he was formerly part of. I still believe that if he had taken a principled stand on why the Taipan helicopters were not transferred to Ukraine rather than being destroyed and buried, he could have had the Ministerial scalps of Marles and Conroy – both of whom displayed an appalling lack of common sense and engaged in deceptive conduct. Hastie was nowhere to be seen on a matter that was clearly resonating with the Australian public.
Not sure how Hastie could take a principled stand on Taipan when he was one the main protagonists responsible for the criminally premature dumping of NH-90 & Tigers, to squander almost $9bn on obsolete Black Hawk & Apaches
Fair point.
Kym, I have to sadly agree with your assessment about Hastie. He could have had Marles and Conroy on a plate but didn’t, he should have attacked them mercilessly to hold them to account and keep our standards high. It’s not about politics, it’s far more important than that. It’s about the security and Defence of our nation. If not Hastie then what other choices do we have to lead the reform of Defence Department and the ADF?
It’s depressing because there are no realistic options at the moment. I wonder if a hung parliament after the next Federal election might somehow change the dynamic but I’m struggling. Support for AUKUS has become a political 3rd rail – it’s going to take someone very, very brave (politically) to grab hold of that one.
Second time I’ve heard anecdotes about Marles and his love of titles.
Previously when not Acting PM he insisted DoD and ADF personnel call him Deputy PM instead of Minister.
Seems he’s not really interested in his Ministerial role at all.
As for Conroy?
A substantial promotion and more responsibility to boot.
Will he cope?
I doubt it but no doubt it will all be someone else’s fault
I find the insistence on titles to be bizarre. In my experience, it’s only the seriously insecure who carry on like that.