In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders.
The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be delayed. This must be worrying news for the RAN – and it seems astounding that there has been no reporting of note in Australia about a development that could completely derail AUKUS Pillar One.
The US also seems to be counting on Australia lifting Defence expenditure so that it can afford these submarines without cutting other capabilities – but that is exactly what has already started to happen. Finally, Defence officials have once again managed to get their way and have hounded German shipbuilding company Luerssen out of Australia.
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And the Saga of the AUKUS debacle goes on. We should at least have a backup plan for when it all goes bad and the US doesn’t deliver the promised (perhaps promised is too strong a word) boats. Things will only get worse with every change of our respective governments between now and a possible delivery date.
Think we have all given up on any credible outcomes from the Arafura class OPV project. I am not sure what CIVMEC will achieve and I think we have done further damage to our international credibility as a result of how Lurssen has been treated.
Waiting in anticipation of the next procurement project failure.
At least in gifting the Abrahms tanks to Ukraine we have done something that makes sense. Wondering if they will offer the Tiger ARH’s when the time comes.
It’s completely extraordinary. If the prime contractor GDEB is saying the program is slowing down, not speeding up, then it’s clearly in trouble and no amount of wishful thinking is going to get around that. I’ll have a more detailed article online in the next few days – all based on US sources because (disgracefully) we are told nothing here.
I’ll also have a bit to say about Tiger ARH in the near future.
This whole AUKUS thing is beginning to sound like something that was thought up by a few Heads of Government over a few to many drinks. Presented to the R.A.N. who thought “Bewty , shiny new toys “ and handed over to relevant Departments and told Make it Happen. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme nor reason to the implementation strategy and the U.S. Third of AUKUS is obviously on a different page than the other two thirds of AUKUS, who are also on different pages. Nobody ( at least nobody on this side of the Pacific) has even acknowledged that the NUMBER ONE criteria for all this to happen is that it does not impact the U.S.N.’s capacity. On another topic, did you see the NEWS report on the Army’s new Blackhawks. I couldn’t believe my ears when a Major in the Aviation Reg. Actually said “ it’s good to have an aircraft that we all have fond memories off.” And the look of pure joy on the Officers Face when announcing the Tiapans had been destroyed. What hope has any Defence System have when Senior Ranks in the Army have their Fond Memories as a priority and Senior Ranks in Navy completely at sea (pun intended)
That seems a reasonable summery of the present situation. I’ll have long article online about AUKUS Pillar One on Monday that goes into a lot more detail.