In July 2023, France outlined its defence spending plans for the next six years in the Military Planning Law (LPM) 2024-30, expanding the modernisation initiatives kickstarted by LPM 2019-25 to reflect evolving geostrategic dynamics and better incorporate emerging technologies, including unmanned and space-based assets. Against this backdrop, France is forecast to increase its defence spending from $60.4 billion in 2024 to $67.8 billion in 2029, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company. GlobalData’s latest report, “France Defense Market Size, Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast to 2029”, reveals that France’s defense spending is forecast to rise to $64 billion in 2025.
Tristan Sauer, Senior Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The deterioration of European security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of France’s strategic reforms, providing the impetus for further and more diversified investment in defense and security capabilities. The most recent spending commitments will allow French defense expenditures to surpass 2% of GDP and finally attain the minimum threshold recommended for NATO members.”
France’s armed forces continue to pursue modernisation across the different operational domains. The largest amount of spending is being directed to the fixed-wing aircraft, missiles and missile defence systems, naval vessels, submarines, and armoured vehicles market segments over the next several years. Between 2024-2034, France’s largest investments are for the international FCAS New Generation Fighter program ($17.9 billion), the SNLE 3G nuclear submarines ($17.3 billion), and various upgrades to the Rafale fighter jet program ($12.9 billion).
Sauer continues: “These investments are indicative of a renewed strategic focus on the commensurate rise of both great power competition and the risk of high intensity conflict. Procurement of conventional capabilities such as aircraft, naval assets, artillery, armored vehicles, and weapons systems is being supplemented with investment in cybersecurity as well as space systems to account for the increasingly diffuse and multi-domain nature of modern warfare.”
As with many western nations, France is facing recruitment issues leading to personnel shortages despite growing investment. GlobalData forecasts that France will spend $125.9 billion on military personnel between 2025-2029, though spending will only increase at a CAGR of 0.5%, which is far slower than the 1.26% CAGR achieved between 2020-2024.
Sauer concludes: “France’s continued investments in modernisation and acquisition programs provide substance to the broader political refocus on strategic competition and its associated risks, with the nation’s growing defence industrial base providing growing opportunities for international engagement. However, much like with the US and other NATO allies, lackluster performance with regards to personnel recruitment and retention is indicative of a wider challenge, which current investments have thus far failed to overcome.”
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