Even though we live in an interconnected world, conflicts in places like Central America or sub-Saharan Africa are unlikely to have a major impact on Australia. The current situation with Ukraine is quite different because even though it is on the other side of the planet the consequences of hostilities with Russia could have global ramifications. At the very least, if tensions are not rapidly diffused a result might be to push Moscow and Beijing even closer together militarily.
Like many Eastern European disputes the situation is complex and simple explanations are not only misleading but can get in the way of finding workable solutions. The mass media likes a good conflict – the bigger, the better – because they generate harrowing images and easy copy reporting on what is happening now rather than trying to explain why events are occurring. The narrative that Russia is ruled by a mad dictator, is being mindlessly aggressive and completely unreasonable is only part of the picture.
We could go back centuries, but let’s start at 1990 and the breakup of the USSR. Some of the meetings involving key figures from the US, the Soviet Union and its Russian core, Germany and NATO involved verbal statements that were never codified in the form of negotiated, binding treaties. For example, the US Secretary of State, James Baker, had a well documented meeting with the last head of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev in December 1990, during which he (Baker) floated the idea of a reunified Germany being allowed to join NATO in exchange for that organisation not expanding eastwards.
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