We start with some thoughts about the still unexplained visit to Washington DC in the final week of August by Defence Minister Richard Marles. The exact circumstances of his meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remain unclear. Perhaps the visit was a substitute for the annual AUSMIN talks, which might not go ahead because of a lack of interest on the US side.
The Australian government does not seem to realise that most of the world is rapidly realigning to minimise dependence on the erratic Trump administration. In our region Japan and the Republic of Korea are re-evaluating their relationship with Washington – and India has had enough and is trying to rapidly improve relations with China and possibly Russia. This means that the Quad – the security agreement between the US, Australia, Japan and India – is dead.
To listen to the podcast, click here.
For Editorial Inquiries Contact:
Editor Kym Bergmann at kym.bergmann@venturamedia.net
For Advertising Inquiries Contact:
Group Sales Director Simon Hadfield at simon.hadfield@venturamedia.net
Thanks, Kym. Great to hear some objective analysis.
My speculation on the Marles visit is that Albanese won’t take a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office. Which sane world leader would? Albanese’s plan would have been to meet on neutral territory, but Trump’s capricious nature and likely health concerns make this look unlikely to occur. Quad won’t happen, and that was the next chance.
So far, Australia has avoided the worst of the Doctrine of Shakedown that the US is pursuing. However, two key decision points threaten this: 1. The changes to social media regulation in Australia that start in November; 2. Colby’s AUKUS review.
Marles would have been sent as DPM, not MOD. Hegseth is just a performing seal in the circus of the Trump cabinet. In this context, Marles would be trying to meet with the two people in the strategic policy space that actually have influence.
If I am correct, things are about to get very rocky in Australia/US relations.
I think the Colby review is likely to come with a number of conditions before we are sold 2nd hand Virginias. These might include a major increase in the Australian defence budget and even more billions handed over to the US base. At some point surely even this government will have to ask whether it’s worth it.