Australia’s Department of Defence plans to move forward with C-130J-30 to replace its existing fleet of 12 C-130J-30s was most likely influenced by interoperability with friendly forces, familiarity with the supplier and equipment, and geopolitics, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
The announcement was followed by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) approving a possible sale of up to 24 C-130J-30s and related equipment to Australia for an estimated cost of $6.35 billion. Taking into account the other aspects under consideration as mentioned by the Department of Defence (DoD), namely “low risk, certified in all roles, proven, mature and affordable,” it is no wonder that they are recommending the tried, tested and in-service C-130J-30. Not to mention that it helps keep partners in the AUKUS agreement happy.
The earliest planned replacement of the C-130Js is expected to start closer to 2030 with a potential budget of AUD8.8-13.2 billion ($5.58 billion – $8.37 billion).
GlobalData’s “Military Fixed-Wing Aircraft Market Forecast 2022-2032” report reveals that the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow at 3.16% CAGR over 2022-32. For the same period, Lockheed Martin, the C-130J’s manufacturer, is the second leading supplier, but mainly propped by the sale of F-35s to the region, including those to Australia. Transport aircraft alone will account for 10.3% of the market volume, growing at a 2.49% CAGR over the same period.
Mathew George, Ph.D, Practice Head, Aerospace, Defense and Security at GlobalData, comments: “The statement from the Australian DoD for the time being seems to reflect the steady growth in commitment to its AUKUS partners and an increasing professionalism in their long-term planning and acquisitions. An American aircraft powered by British engines seem almost designed for this partnership. However, earlier documents did reflect the need to replace the C-130s by around their end of life. This announcement only seems to cement its existing relationships to procure these aircraft to continue the work done by these in the unique environments and missions they will find themselves.”
BAE Systems was selected to continue the maintenance and upgrade of the F-35s, while the C-130Js in service are being maintained through two prime performance-based contracts with Airbus Australia Pacific and Standard Aero, while CAE Australia supports the C-130J Simulator.
George continues: “These contracts will continue moving forward as the platform will not change, just their upgrades. Not to mention Project AIR5440 and other upgrades to ensure the existing fleet continues till the new ones arrive.”
The Department of Defence knows what they expect these aircraft to do, where they will be deployed and know that they cannot afford any reduction in readiness due to supply chain issues.
George concludes: “Despite all of Australia’s sovereign capability building, it will need to continue to develop close relations with existing suppliers and partner nations to counter threats and make decisions that ensure minimal potential disruptions from supply chains, both for production and maintenance. In addition, the C-130J aircraft will need to continue the work done by the RAAF in neighbouring Pacific Islands and other areas where they are deployed. With troubles facing Embraer with the Brazilian air force reducing order numbers, the C-130J-30 may have been the safe, tried-and-tested bet that the RAAF could move forward with.”
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