There’s a great deal to unpack, starting with the Strait of Hormuz – and no one knows the exact state of negotiations between the US and Iran. Neither are particularly trustworthy and the situation seems to change hourly. And a quick reminder – this is a war initially cheered on by our government and even more enthusiastically supported by the opposition.
On the local front, the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been gutted, jeopardising Australia’s submarine deterrence capability. Defence Minister Richard Marles gave an embarrassing speech last week focussed on blaming the opposition for all of the problems, overlooking the fact that he has just had his 4th anniversary as the Minister responsible. Quick summary – this has been a massive Defence failure, which has also been exposed by the ANAO. Even worse, it’s this same group of manifestly incompetent people who are in charge of AUKUS Pillar One.
Finally a few words about Israel, which is continuing to massively lose international support by the treatment of peaceful protesters, including from Australia. The continuing destruction of southern Lebanon using Gaza-style tactics isn’t helping.
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Joe Hockey – “You know, for the first time I’m a little nervous about the Virginias.” Here is the problem. Project risk management says you should be nervous during initial project scoping, not as your decision points for rescoping have closed.
Plan B looks like a ramp up in LUUV capability while the ASA continues to burn through money.
I would love to see Arafura upgraded with a 57mm Bofors gun mounted; a SAAB ELINT and ESM package plugged in their 9LV CMS and then finally equipping the class with Speartooth LUUV. The class shouldn’t be about delivering ordnance, but could it no serve as a low cost and low risk asset for monitoring surface and subsurface activity in the littorals? Could these also not be operated jointly with NZ as part of ANZAC 2035 in the Tasman and across the South Pacific?
I agree. The mishandling of SEA 1180 has been truly appalling.
When the 2030s arrive both the US & UK could rightfully decide Australia’s track record with Collins renders it unfit to operate SSNs safely. That said, Australia needs to ask South Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq about the durability of Uncle Sam’s pledges of long term support in regional conflicts that Uncle Sam initiates. Does Australia seriously believe its 230 odd years of anglo-saxon heritage will make the difference ?
Sadly our leaders do not believe that the world has changed at all from the happy days of the 1990s.