If any further proof of the unreliability of the US was needed, it was amply demonstrated last Friday when US President Donald Trump tried to publicly humiliate his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelenskyy at a White House meeting. It was an appalling performance by the US President – and Australia has to get the message that potentially we are on our own. But have we heard that from the government? Of course not. They are still too frightened of offending Trump that all they can talk about is continuing the support for Ukraine. Since that has come up, let’s look at the facts, which show that despite having the world’s 10th or 11th largest economy we are a pathetic 33 on the list of international donors. So how about the Prime Minister stop beating his chest and actually increase the level of support to something more meaningful. If people are agitated about Chinese warships conducting live fire drills in this area just imagine when the Russian Pacific Fleet starts doing the same thing, with the USN nowhere in sight.
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The Chinese fleet media frenzy of the past week has been fascinating. If for no other reason, the PLA Navy’s arrival highlights that Minister Marles mantra of ‘impactful projection’ ignores Australia’s need to ensure effective monitoring of its regional zones and in particular, the security of its offshore economic infrastructure.
Given the impossible delays in naval procurement, why can’t Navy commit to a developmental program around the Arafura class that would partner with locally based technology companies to rapidly develop modular capabilities around the protection of offshore infrastructure?
It is surely within the base capability of the Arafura to remove the two, deck-mounted RIBs and replace them with something like the Thales BlueSky autonomous undersea monitoring system. These could be used to deploy along gas pipelines, navigational choke points and underwater cables in our immediate region.
In addition, the Arafura could serve as a test-bed for a maritime anti-drone system like the EOS R400.
Finally, the platform could be used as a development test bed for maritime and containerised Kongsberg NSM launchers. Hell, if you can fit these to a Bushmaster, surely the unused flat deck of a 1,600-tonne vessel is not beyond reason.
These are three, low-risk development options that are potentially scalable across all six hulls (and potentially other vessels of opportunity).
Once these are proved up, Australia would have access to a highly flexible and affordable fleet of ships that be used as force multipliers (alongside higher-end ships) or in responding to expeditionary incursions around critical economic infrastructure.
If the Ukraine tragedy teaches us anything, it is that flexibility, pragmatism, innovation and adaptability are key attributes of effective defence capability building.
I agree with all of those points, but there’s even more. Luerssen offered 18 months ago to morph the Arafuras into 2,200 tonne missile-firing corvettes – still with the very large rear deck. The ships would have 70% commonality with the Arafuras, would use the existing Australian supply chain and would be built at Henderson. For the life of me, I can’t understand why this offer has been totally ignored. This is exactly what speed to capability should look like.
It was, and remains, a bewildering decision. Luerssen has gone and I suspect have put a 61 area code block on their phone systems. However, I am sure that CIVMEC would be more than happy to extend the current production run to deliver another three of the cancelled six hulls. If Marles picked up the phone, I am sure that the NZ would be interested in a couple of hulls given the events of the past ten days and doubts about the reliability of ANZUS.
The point I was trying to make was that in this term of government, we have endured a sequential Optimal Pathway (AUKUS) review, followed by the DSR, followed by the Surface Combatant Review, followed by Project SEA 3000. No overlap in any of this work even though the outcome of the Optimal Pathway review was completely predictable and therefore was a given input into the two subsequent reviews.
Three years and not so much as a single hot rivet has been manufactured for Navy that was initiated by this conga line of reviews.
The PLA Navy episode, the US’s arms export embargo on Ukraine, an impossibly disrupted and contested global arms manufacturing sector, unprecedented increases in geo-political risk, combined with the LNP’s uncosted F35 announcement, all provide the current government with the political space (indeed, imperative) to actually do something.
Work with Australian manufacturing and technology capability that is available now and build something that, though far from perfect, is at least usable in mitigating our rapidly shrinking naval capacity.
I agree with most of that and was similarly disappointed by the comments of Professor Blaxland, who has definitely consumed the AUKUS Pillar One Kool-Aid. I’m a fan of the F-35 and happily support that decision; however, I agree that it would be a very, very good idea to begin the process of purchasing B21s.
Agree.
Within 2 days of America’s latest atrocity, Australia’s national broadcaster had former Australian Army officer – current Professor in Intelligence Studies and International Security at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at ANU downplaying Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine and ‘rules based world order’. In between conceding his addiction to what Trump describes as ‘great television’, Professor John Blaxland actually argued that Trump’s modus operandi was merely a method of pressing Europe to do more for its own defence, which in turn would increase US focus and resources on the Indo Pacific. So Australia wins by Trump linking arms with a genocidal war criminal like Putin ? Is Australia’s army of US alliance sycophants issued with knee pads or does the goo that has usurped their spines cushion the impact of being on all fours rather than striving for self reliance ?
As for Jim McDowell’s resignation, surely declaring the need for ANOTHER year to decide between 2 frigates (after wasting nearly 2 years considering vessels blatantly unsuitable for the task ie Navantia’s corvette etc) then boasting of efficiency because in the past such a decision could take anything up to 7-9 years, all heralds the urgent need for a shake up of the current bureaucratic malaise. We can’t criticise government for not responding fast enough to the worst strategic environment since WW2 then snipe at it for pushing for a pretty straight forward decision between 2 operational – in production general purpose frigates sooner rather than later.
As for knuckle dragger Dutton ordering another 28 tiny range – tiny payload F-35s (when the last order of 58 took 11 years to arrive), wouldn’t it be more prudent to allocate $3bn towards dedicated long range strike platforms like the B21 Raider to fill the gaping hole left by the F-111 ? Particularly when Northrop Grumman are repeatedly kicking unprecedented goals by actually delivering promised testing – production outcomes, on time.
This did not start with Putin who I would not describe as a war criminal. If one follows the trail back to the promise made to Gorbachev, and events of 2014, then a better picture is seen re Russian invasion
Europeans should pay more for defence. Bludging on USA for too long
It makes my head hurt trying to keep track of all the drama’s associated with Defence procurement in this country.
The statement about only needing enough armoured vehicles to fit comfortably onto Canberra and Adelaide has been thrown out the window with the announcement of the impending procurement of 8 LST’s and 16 LCH’s.
Most of the narrative I am hearing at the moment about the General Purpose Frigate program is that the RAN will be building between 7 and 11 as opposed to the earlier statement that we would be building 11.
Happy to see another 24 F35’S but still don’t think that it is enough. Couple of squadrons of B21’s would also be handy but is probably unlikely.
I don’t understand the need to stretch out the GPF announcement – I cannot see any outcome than the upgraded Mogami. Is it because no one wants to make the decision because of the upcoming election?
I think the recent visit by the Chinese task force was probably a wake up call but am also wondering if Defence were actually blindsided or just understating some of the facts for practically purposes. I get that they were shadowed by an ANZAC FFH but pretty sure other assets would have been on standby should a quick response have been required.
As for America – we need to move away from our heavy reliance at least of their equipment in the future.
I’m wondering what the two contenders for the GP Frigates think of the latest out of Canberra in terms of timing of a decision.
Marles insists all is on track for a decision this year whilst the bloke who might actually have a better idea says next year and then pulls the pin.
Send in the clowns, oh wait they’re already here.
We should immediately insist of an ironclad contract with the US guaranteeing the delivery of the promised Virginia subs in the 2030s. If the US refuse to sign we should back out of the AUKUS agreement.
Trump has demonstrated that the US can no longer be trusted.
Henry Kissinger — ‘It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.’
A very poor podcast in my opinion, with all due respect.
With a Chinese fleet conducting live fire exercises in the Tasman sea and big questions about our supposed “unprecedented surveillance” that just happened to miss live weapons firing AND not knowing whether a nuclear submarine is accompanying the task group, this podcast focusses on Trump and Russia and even potential actions of the Russian Pacific fleet!
We need not worry about theoretical threats as we have an actual fleet right here and right now that we can’t shadow 24/7 and can’t identify if a submarine is with and is conducting threatening and bullying actions right in our back yard.
Some questions I would have liked asked and or answered.
Where was our Navy, what ships were deployed, were P8 Poseidon aircraft deployed , what actions if any were taken to check for a submarine?
Why the delay in our Government finding out about the the live fire ex. Where Peregrine Intel aircraft deployed and if so why did they not inform Government of the actions of the fleet?
How many ships did we have available to shadow and what about our defunct supply ships being both out of action due to maintenance?
Many many more questions could and should be asked.
500 I presume Million (sure you said Billion) per year for Ukraine, but our response to this Chinese fleet has highlighted our extreme weakness, and no one is asking the hard and uncomfortable questions of Government about it.
No money at all for Ukraine, we have extreme troubles at home that are in desperate need of attention and that we need to keep the focus right here, otherwise the shell game of shifting Defence responsibility and procurement inaction will continue.
My two cents.
RAAF’s first MC-55A Peregrine undergoing flight testing in US
https://theaviationist.com/2025/01/27/australia-mc-55-peregrine-raaf-markings-tests/
Yes taxpayers deserve to know why RAAF’s 14 P8-A Poseidons and 6 Boeing E7 Wedgetails haven’t shadowed every step of China’s muscle flexing on our doorstep but
Australia’s anorexic contributions to Ukraine are irrelevant.What is relevant is the signal Trump’s bromance with Putin and sabotage of Ukraine has sent China, North Korea, Iran etc ie the rules based world order is over folks, long as y’all don’t mess with Murica do as you damn well please.
I suggest that you direct your frustration towards any or all of the following institutions – NewsCorp, Fairfax, 7West, 9 Entertainment and the ABC. It isn’t just our naval capacity that has been steadily hollowed out – it is our defence and strategic journalism resources that are vapidly thin. The specialists who remain at those institutions have been unquestioning adherents to the doctrine of unchallenged US hegemony and Australia’s position as supplicant within that grand bargain.
Beyond the media, there are a couple of noteworthy ‘think tanks’ that have also failed to ask challenging questions regarding the dialectic between US forces’ integration and independence in Australian foreign policy. Australia’s foreign and strategic policy debate has been uni-dimensional in considering the balancing of our economic dependence on China and our strategic dependence on the US.
There is and has always been, a second dimension within each of those two maxims – how do we de-risk our economic and strategic dependence on these two strategic super rivals? Beazley’s white paper in 1987 mentioned self-reliance fifty-six times. Rudd’s 2009 white paper mentioned self-reliance 15 times. Gillard’s 2013 white paper mentioned self-reliance seven times and Abbott’s 2015 white paper mentioned the idea just twice. The AUKUS debacle eliminated the concept of self-reliance in totality and has been a massive distraction at a time of unprecedented geopolitical risk. We are left with the conceit of ‘impactful projection’ from a maritime nation with its least capable naval fleet in 30 years.
I agree with all of that. With a few exceptions, most media just parrot the government’s talking points, especially as they apply to AUKUS. The problem is compounded by the fact that the Opposition also won’t criticise Defence policy because when they were in government, they were just as bad about giving up any semblance of independence or self-reliance.
I remain an ardent supporter of self reliance, and this podcast. Strength comes through an honest assessment of weaknesses and striving to improve them. The ADF and Defence Dept tragically lacks honest self awareness and any idea of actual measurable improvement. Kym does an admirable job telling truth to power in this regard, less so with this podcast in my view. Allow me to reframe my statements to one of encouragement rather than of criticism. We must be fierce in holding Defence and politicians to account and Kym’s voice counts for so much more than mine. Best regards to everyone.