Due to the complete betrayal of Ukraine by the US, the security situation for the western world – including Australia – is worsening. However, you wouldn’t know that here with complete political and media indifference with people preferring to focus on the weather situation in Queensland. This is appalling parochialism and is ignoring the reality that the cherished “special relationship” with Washington is over. It’s finished. The US is no longer a reliable ally because the President is acting as if he is a Russian asset. What we are witnessing is a modern-day version of the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which divided Eastern Europe up between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union – except this time it’s Russia and the US deciding the future of Ukraine and other countries. It’s disgusting – and now Canada is also receiving treatment from the US that their Prime Minister believes is part of an attempt to turn it into the 51st US state. This isn’t a joke, and Australians need to wake up. Our government needs to overcome its terror of upsetting the US and show some backbone on behalf of our friends and allies. We have leverage and should not be afraid to use it.
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Well that was an interesting Podcast. I’m surprised that you’re surprised at the Media coverage being given to the QLD floods. With the Election in limbo neither Party want to make Defence, or rather their lack of a coherent plan, an issue unless they have to and most Australians don’t want to hear how bad news like that.The Political reality is that successive Governments have pinned the Defence of Australia on the alliance with the United States, which the majority of Australians believe compels the U.S. to come to our aid, ANZUS has been on shaky ground for decades with only the ADF ( who ironically will be the ones left in the firing line all by themselves) it’s only Champions. Australians who think this Election will somehow change our Defence Policy are in for a rude shock, both Parties are the same when it comes to backbone, the dependence on U.S. arms and Equipment is to ingrained to be changed anytime soon and if any new policy is implemented it will still take years.Keep up the good work, without the APDR I doubt we would know what is happening.
Thanks. It’s profoundly depressing that neither the media nor the politicians want to talk about the destruction of Ukraine, which is underway now that the US has switched sides and is backing Russia. You are correct about the bipartisan refusal to accept reality because events are showing that Australia is isolated. There are some bright spots – behind the scenes, both Japan and South Korea would like to work much more closely with us – but will the politicians and the Defence establishment get over their fawning behaviour towards the US? Unfortunately, I think not.
I totally agree that the RAN acquiring a single Virginia class sub is extremely unlikely. I wonder if we’ll be repaid the deposit just paid?
You suggest French subs – don’t they require refueling during their service life? That means Australia is at the mercy of other nations with the deployment of our subs.
Is it feasible to try to accelerate development of the AUKUS sub, which I understand is a follow on from the Astute class? I suspect the Brits would welcome a quicker development also.
No deposit will be returned to Australia because the idiots who agreed to this deal didn’t bother to include a refund clause. Yes, French submarines use Low Enriched Uranium and need to be refueled every 10 years or so. However, there is no reason why this could not be done locally. LEU cores could be stored here and installed as required. Of course you will never hear that from the RAN – and the government – who continue to propagate the lie that only submarines using HEU are suitable for Australia.
Thanks for info re LEU. I understood a nuclear power industry was required to generate fuel at the time of refueling.
Do you have any insights into the possibility of accelerating the AUKUS sub development?
Having a nuclear power industry is a huge advantage in being able to produce the fuel, but as far as I can tell, buying and storing LEU cores (for example from France) is possible. You could not do that with HEU because it is bomb grade material and so is exceptionally tightly controlled. LEU is typically around 5% U235 (the really nasty stuff) and is a bit less sensitive since it’s in widespread use in commercial reactors all around the world. Another option would be for Australia to develop our own Uranium processing industry, though for reasons I don’t understand that is always ruled out as being politically unacceptable.
We already get LEU fuel imported from both the US and France for Lucas Heights.
3-4 deliveries a year according to ANSTO.
We could piggy back off that
Correct.
In the limited media analysis that is happening in Australia around AUKUS, a critical shift that has been overlooked is the UK’s commitment to an AUKUS class boat. I understand that the Astute class uses a BAE sourced combat management system – Astute Combat Management System.
The AUKUS class boat was intended to use an ‘evolved’ version of the US AN/BYG -1 combat management system (currently used on the Collins class).
Here is the rub – I suggest that the chances of the UK seeking to implement a US combat management system on its yet-to-be-designed new class of boats must now be close to zero.
I have been trying to find out for 2 years what the combat system will look like for the AUKUS SUB because, in the original optimal pathway announcement, it was supposed to be a three-way US-UK-AUS development. I have been calling BS on that ever since. No Australian company has been involved in CMS development – and none ever will be. You are correct – the future Brit sub (in the very unlikely event that it ever emerges) will have a BAE Systems CMS. That’s partly because it will use UK torpedoes, such as the Spearfish HWT. Ask the RAN with their love affair with the Mk 48 HWT how they feel about that.
The risk in the AUKUS project was off the charts when it was commissioned. However, environmental shifts have made the risk profile even worse. Since the Optimal Pathway was signed up, we have found that (a short selection):
– The condition of the Collins class subs was worse than had been disclosed;
– The UK has announced a pivot to rebuilding its army and missile defence capability as its highest priority;
– The US production schedule of Virginia’s has slowed;
– The US has adopted a transactional bilateral approach to international relations, moving away from alliance and treaty arrangements;
– The US is revisiting its force structure and basing to free up money to build a ‘golden dome’ missile defence system;
– The condition of our surface fleet is worse than was previously disclosed;
– The Hunter class project is running even further behind than was previously disclosed;
– The global munitions market has gone into critical overdemand;
– Force recruitment and retention have worsened; and
– The Arafura class project has been canned…
So much has changed, but nothing about AUKUS can be challenged. The reason why nothing in the AUKUS plan can be revisited is that its critical dependency pathway is fatally flawed and any change in timeliness within any of the stages would be terminal to Australia’s capacity to sustain a submarine capability.
The Optimal Pathway needs to be axed, immediately. It is a camel, designed by a committee in need of a racehorse.
That’s a good summary.
Hmm, selective memory describing America’s latest ‘greed is good’ moment paralysing that other US oxymoron ie Rules Based World Order as an “unprecedented international relations crisis”. The years between 1939 – 1945 still own that title I believe. Nothing new to see here folks, Lest We Forget how content the transactional nature of the US was sitting out three quarters of the horrific industrialised European carnage of WW1 only to reiterate that policy 20 years later by ignoring the devastating technological blitzkrieg unleashed by fascism for the first half of WW2. And while we’re strolling down memory lane, anyone in this thread recall the fate of the first and last Australian government to make sovereignty linked demands of the White House re Pine Gap ? namely the facility’s precise function, to determine whether or not it made Australia a nuclear target. As for as the current pond life occupying Canberra, whilst completely nauseating, I’ve yet to hear anything quite as repugnant as “All The Way With LBJ” the LNP’s anthem for joining America’s own Holocaust in Vietnam, followed by its illegal invasions – double decade genocidal oil, mineral & gas pilfering occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq.
The underlying issue with Europe’s unfolding clarity re Trump & co’s insatiable lust for ‘more’ is the vast gulf between the collective chorus of defence investment vs the time it will take under parasitic western business models for such investment to produce anything of consequence.
Oh and when exactly has Australia’s malignant mainstream media EVER treated the population any differently to mushrooms ?
Instead of wasting its breath with Trump, if Australia’s ‘leadership’ team had 4 neurons to rub between themselves they would be be pushing for a genuine Pacific Security Quad with Korea, Japan & France effective immediately.
p.s France is developing Low Enriched Uranium Reactors that will enjoy the same life span as the US & UK weapons grade HEU options. Hmm can anyone think of a country with vast amounts of uranium and instant willingness to embrace the advantages offered by SSNs ?particularly the world’s latest state of the art French model operated by a Collins size crew.
Your final point causes me to repeat one I have tried to make very frequently – AUKUS has never primarily been about nuclear-powered submarines, the main objective is the return of Australia to the comfort of the Anglosphere.
Hmm, a society whose ancestors (according to Tony Abbott) were chosen by the finest judges of England, a society that sustains 237 years non-stop genocide of the country’s true First Nations people (with heritage carbon dated back 80,000 years) A society that denies the world’s oldest surviving culture a voice in its ancestors parliament, much less a treaty on its blood soaked battlefields and massacre sites, a society that more often than not elects to be represented by a ‘broadchurch’ of openly loud & proud white supremacists is in no danger of isolation from said Anglosphere. The danger posed by the painstakingly slow progress of human evolution however, is a different story…
If you believe Australia is a “blood-soaked” society represented by a parliament of “white supremacists” committing “non-stop genocide”, it’s strange that you care so much about the effectiveness of its military. If you truly believes this country is an illegitimate, murderous collection of racists, you should be advocating for its destruction, not its defence.
Hmm not sure how you managed to conflate belief with historical fact JB , but thanks for highlighting my glaring omission, forgot to include a society in which many remain allergic to uncomfortable truths. I know I know, this is where you interrupt with the high brow response of ‘love it or leave.’ One day you may evolve to grasping the fact that it is indeed possible to acknowledge and learn from the darkest truths about one’s nation while remaining determined to defend it from further tyranny.
If you seriously feel your agitprop is based in fact, you are not a serious person, Mike.
Hmm, pouncing on documented facts with infantile hyperbole begs the question what historically malnourished individuals like yourself really have against China.
Left to your demonstrably ignorant devices you assume airs of delusional omnipotence that seek to crush anyone who dares to print disagreeable facts, much like Chinese tanks crush students for uttering impertinent truths at gatherings like Tiananmen Square.
Sadly contributions like yours underline the success story of little Johnny Howard’s mission to dumb down entire generations of Australians by starving public education. I say sadly because rectifying such ignorance is inconvenient – time consuming to say the least.
But if you really need my reply to Kym spelt out for you in a way that 4 year olds could understand, here goes,
1. UN Definition of genocide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention
Article 2 of the Convention defines genocide as:
any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
I challenge anyone to identify a single crime from the table above that does not continue to be inflicted by white Australia on First Australians today…
2.
Despite carbon dating revealing Indigenous artefacts dating back 80,000 years
https://www.bradshawfoundation.com/news/archaeology.php?id=Evidence-of-Aboriginal-habitation-up-to-80-000-years-ago
Section 127 of the Constitution of Australia excluded Indigenous Australians from population counts. It came into effect on 1 January 1901 when the founding states federated into the Commonwealth of Australia, it wasn’t repealed until 1967
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_127_of_the_Constitution_of_Australia
Aboriginal people weren’t given the right to vote in federal elections until 1962.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Australian_referendum_(Aboriginals)
3.
Liberal Party Godfather Robert Menzies proudly endorsing the White Australia Policy
Australians elected to be represented by Liberal Federal governments many of whom include loud and proud white supremacists for majority of the 20th century and again for the majority of the 21st century so far…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhvmsV9bnxQ
4.
Liberal Federal Attorney General George Brandis defending the rights of the ignorant to engage in Bigotry – Racist Hate Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEaz2s28JEU
5.
Australia remains the only Commonwealth country to have never signed a treaty with its indigenous people. While treaties were established early on in other British dominions such as New Zealand, Canada and in the United States, the situation in Australia has been notoriously, different.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-40024622
6.
Colonial Frontier Massacres Map, Australia, 1788 to 1930
https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/map.php
7.
A Secret Country – The shameful history of persecution of Aborigines in Australia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzjW6RjQQi4
8.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-life-expectancy/latest-release
Majority of the evidence underlying my reply to Kym is given to you in video – graphical format, as clearly reading up on your nation’s past & present is not a strength you invest much time in developing. Interesting that somebody so unfamiliar with the lack of fundamental Indigenous human rights in Australia, deems themselves qualified to comment on the capacity of Australia’s armed forces maintained with the express duty to protect and defend fundamental human rights
Mike – I’ll let this through even though we are straying a bit off topic here. This forum is mainly for Defence and national security stuff – even though I’m not above the occasional diversion myself. If you wish I can put you in touch with JB and you are both welcome to thrash out this very large and complex topic to your heart’s content.
Many thanks Kym for allowing documented truth speak for itself on this occasion, if the facts aren’t enough, further comms are clearly futile.
I agree this is a topic that more Australians should know about.
No thank you Kym.
If I want to be abused in person I’ll just go chat to the homeless person outside my office.
I’m not talking about being abused, just having a fuller understanding of history. We all benefit from that.
I was responding to your offer to put me in contact with Mike. I apologise for the confusion.
Haha! OK got it.
Tendentious wikipedia articles and youtube videos posted by grievance mongers do not make your post any less ridiculous.
The much-abused UN definition of genocide is only relevant if there is an intent to destroy the group. Deaths in custody and removal of children from dysfunctional homes do not meet the definition of genocide. Neither does sporadic violence between aborigines and early settlers. And even if they did, after 237 years of “non-stop genocide” you’d think the indigenous population would be going down, rather than exploding.
But thank you for the opportunity to better understand where you are coming from. I offer you two observations in return:
1. Ad-hominem and sarcasm do not strengthen your case, especially when the hyperbole is all yours.
2. None of this is even remotely relevant to Ukraine, AUKUS or the challenges of maintaining an alliance with a newly unpredictable United States.
I certainly agree with your final point.
JB PLEASE LEARN TO READ
Article 2 of the Convention defines genocide as:
any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy,
IN WHOLE OR IN PART, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group
That’s the final one on this topic that I’m letting through.
Thank you Mr Bergmann, While I defend MS right to voice his opinion. This is not the forum.
Time to get serious about CANZUK. Maybe even expand it to include a few other nations as well. If we do go the 3% of GDP on defence make sure as little as possible of that money goes to the US Defence Industry.
I’m also keen to closer cooperation with Japan and especially South Korea.
I know I’m late to this conversation Kym.
But I agree with closer co-op with two Allies with skin in the Game .
Both have very Clever solutions to expensive Defence situations.
I feel Australia made a foolish decision back
when prime minister Abbott wanted Japanese Submarines for our Navy.
Hopefully we get the Japanese Frigate.
The Japanese would be within their rights to be wary of our Defence department wheeling and dealing with sweet offers.
The Korea’s also had their Artillery contract cut back.they both have such great industrial technology and Disciplined approaches to delivery schedule.
Their cultures honours contracts .