The Teal Group recently released a new report that forecasts global military spending on the Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) market will hit US$23 billion by 2023. The World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems, 2023/2024 Market Profile & Forecast annual sector study includes: expert analysis, year-by-year forecasts through 2033, recent developments with a special attention to the Ukraine/Russia War, vehicle platforms, sensors (electro-optic, infrared, synthetic aperture radar, electronic warfare, SIGINT, and multi- and hyperspectral systems), individual countries and key competitors.
Select findings from the study include:
- The principal lesson from the initial stages of the Ukraine War were suggested by the RUSI (UK Royal United Services Institute) study Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine-February-July 2022: “Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and counter-UAS (CUAS) are essential across all branches and at all echelons. Although critical to competitiveness by providing situational awareness, 90% of UAS employed are lost. For the most part, UAS must be cheap and attritable.”
- Ukrainian War Lesson #2: The Ukrainian conflict makes it clear that larger fixed-wing UAS are not survivable in a high-intensity conflict such as Ukraine where advanced air defense missiles are available. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 armed UAS dominated the battlefield for a few months in the winter/spring 2022 but was swept off the battlefield when Russian air defense missile systems began to appear.
- UAS procurement funding will increase from the current worldwide level of $14 billion annually in 2024 to $23.1 billion in 2033, totaling $186.8 billion over the next 10 years.
- Military UAS research spending would add another $72 billion over the decade. These numbers include Teal Group’s estimates of classified US spending in procurement and R&D.
- The US will account for 71.9% of the unclassified R&D spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 34% of the unclassified procurement through the forecast decade.
- By including Teal Group “black” program assumptions, the US accounts for 81.3% of the world R&D on UAVs and 47.8% of the procurement.This difference is due to heavier US investment in cutting-edge technologies and the marked lag-time in such research and procurement. A tangible example of the “black” UAV budget in the US is the RQ-170 Sentinel program which only came to light when one of the stealth drones came down in Iranian territory. Recent revelations about the RQ-180 provide another example.
- The pattern of UAS development in Europe has been markedly different than in the US, with widespread design and manufacture of mini-UAVs and tactical UAVs over the past decade, but few strategic long-endurance systems, comparable to Predator or Global Hawk.Numerous European attempts to cooperatively develop MALE systems have failed, and yet another effort is underway, called EuroMALE 2025.
- China has a major and substantial UAV effort underway, and has begun exports of tactical and armed UAVs. China has displayed a variety of UAVs at international trade shows, with a growing emphasis on armed UAVs. Much of this effort appears to be oriented towards the export market. Initial sales of Chinese drones have not met with an enthusiastic reception due to apparent durability problems, and market attention has been shifting to Turkey instead as an alternative source.
- Israel, a major pioneer of tactical UAVs for several decades, has continued to be a major player in UAV export sales around the globe. One of its most important sales in recent years was to India, which is part of a broader effort to interest India in joint military technology ties. India is interested in a robust reconnaissance capability in the difficult terrain of Kashmir, and decided to buy some off-the-shelf Israeli UAVs, rather than wait for its indigenous pro-grams to mature. Pakistan imported and license-produced Chinese UAVs along the troubled frontier with India.
- One of the most likely growth areas for micro-UAVs/mini-UAV is in “quadcopter” UAVs. Most military mini-UAVs now are based on electric-powered Styrofoam aircraft. The “quadcopter” or “multi-copter” configurations are small air vehicles with four or more small lift rotors, one on each corner. These offer a more stable platform than more conventional single rotor mini-helicopters.
- Teal Group believes that UCAV production will be quite small in the forecast period. Our assumption is that the USAF is developing a stealthy strike UCAV to replace the F-117 strike fighter, and that it will enter production in the forecast period. We expect that “hunter-killer” UAVs such as MQ-9A Reaper will prosper.
- Northrop Grumman – the dominant #1 prime contractor in the UAV SAR (synthetic aperture radar) market – has led the UAV SAR market for the past two decades and will continue to lead over the next decade with $3.4 billion in unclassified funding, buoyed by the majority of Global Hawk MP-RTIP funding as well as the Grey Eagle Starlite and the Triton MFAS radars.
- In the U.S., the FTUAS program will replace the RQ-7 Shadow. The U.S. Army announced in May 2023 that it had concluded the Base Period of the Future Tactical Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (FTUAS) Program and awarded agreement option 1 to four Project Agreement Holders (PAHs): Griffon Aero-space’s Valiant; Shield AI/Northrop Grumman’s V-BAT; Sierra Nevada’s Voly-T; and Textron Systems Aerosonde Mk. 4.8 HQ. (AeroVironment’s JUMP was eliminated, and L3Harris’ FVR-90 failed to reach the Base Period appraisal.)
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