In this episode we cover the two big Defence stories that broke last week: the emergency funding request in the US to prop up Virginia class submarine construction and secondly the Japanese government granting approval for the potential sale to Australia of Mogami class frigates. With the frigates, the Australian government, Defence and the RAN are now in serious danger of creating a false expectation that Japan is going to win this deal, no matter what. Unless this is true – in which case why bother with a competition – expectations need to be lowered because all that Tokyo is hearing is that Australia considers the relationship with Japan to be strategically vital. If the competition is real the quickest way of calming things down is for the competitors to be allowed to openly speak about what they are offering.
Next, nuclear-powered submarine production in the US is slowing down – and the Australian Submarine Agency remains in complete denial. We know for a fact that production is slowing because the USN has said it is. That’s just a fact and no amount of talking up bipartisan support in Congress makes the slightest difference to reality. And guess what – the US is already practising its lines for when all of this goes bad.
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Little puzzled by your commentary re Sea 3000 Kym, TKMS was showcasing the Meko 210 as its bid for Sea 3000 at Indo Pacific Sydney back in November 2023 while MHI showcased the upgraded Mogami as its contender. As an industry outsider, I found VADM Hammond’s endorsement of Mogami’s reduced crew size at IODS in Perth July 2024 coupled with MHI’s larger presence, greater detail – promotion of the upgraded FFM and the absence of TKMS, all pretty telling. What I’ll never understand is how Navantia’s corvette was even considered.
Looking forward to some no BS assessment re the progress of F-35 TR 3 & Blk 4 & exactly how many air frames RAAF is still waiting on after LM’s Avalon announcement in March 2023 of final RAAF delivery by end of 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_nU7EyRSyk&list=PLZ5dmKKH0J6Z3eZp1lU30NLqGxE1JcU7f
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rnTh5N-G8c&list=PLZ5dmKKH0J6Z3eZp1lU30NLqGxE1JcU7f&index=3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUgJADMQkUc&t=243s
https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/lockheed-will-complete-australian-f-35-deliveries-by-year-end/152288.article
TKMS have been badly handicapped in the entire SEA 3000 process because their people take the threat of being jailed if they discuss their bid seriously. Japan seems to have fewer inhibitions.
I’m informed that Australia’s final nine F-35s will be in-country probably by the end of the year. I’ll have more to say about this shortly.
Dec 2024, first official acknowledgment of ‘delayed’ delivery of RAAF F-35s I’ve seen since LM’s empty boast of final delivery by end of 2023
https://psnews.com.au/raaf-f-35a-deliveries-resume-after-year-long-delay/150615/
I’ll have a bit more to say about this in the near future. As I’ve done my best to explain previously, the problem is not of Lockheed Martin’s making. All of the Australian jets have been completed on schedule but the delay has been caused by the USAF and the testing schedule for the Block 4 upgrade configuration.
No surprises in your Podcast, the entire handling of the DoD and CASG has been a circus for several years. Sea3000 is just the tip of the iceberg , if rumour has it (and I stress rumour) the bulk of the Submarine Service believes the only Virginia’s Australia will see are U.S. Boats on rotation. Some think we ,maybe ,some day, perhaps will see an AUKUS boat but in the meantime the Service will have nothing as the Collins Boats quietly rust away. The Mogami is another matter, every one I spoke to, admittedly ex Service and lower ranks as well as lower PS over a few drinks) on the old boy network seem to think that the Mogami,despite preference for the MEKO, is what we will get. I know you can’t put to much credibility in rumour, especially over drinks, but it was also mentioned that some very high up people are starting to show interest in Strikemaster as a back up in case HIMARS is later than expected.
I saw an article written by Peter Briggs earlier this week suggesting that Australia needs to look at potentially pulling out of AUKUS and buying French (nuclear) boats. Didn’t get time to fully digest the article but found it interesting that Peter Briggs, who has considerable experience and credibility has made the suggestion of an alternate path.
Not sure how the French would feel about us going back to them after the last debacle.
I can’t imagine the French would be in the slightest bit interested in helping us out after how we have behaved.
After witnessing just how much cash the corrupt – congenital idiots running Canberra are willing to throw away on this farce, I believe France could manage to swallow its pride. Not only could Australia have had the world’s latest – state of the art submarine , it could’ve taken advantage of both conventional AND LEU SSN versions with a far less damning disposal legacy than that posed by the Weapon’s Grade HEU of US-UK boats.