The instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration continues – and that should have alarm bells ringing for Australian Defence planners. The US is no longer a reliable ally as is being demonstrated by threats to take Greenland from NATO member Denmark and the unnecessary imposition of tariffs on friendly nations such as Australia. It looks like Ukraine will be thrown under a bus, which should alarm all Australians in case China’s President Xi thinks he can get away with invading Taiwan.
A bit more about the completely corrosive nature of Defence secrecy and the alarming evidence that the Chief of Army can be overruled by a 20-something staffer in a Ministerial office. Finally, some thoughts on technologies – and we should be investing heavily in home-grown drones. We don’t need to import a single one – there’s plenty of talent here.
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Another excellent episode. Many thanks.
When Keating, Turnbull, White and Carr criticise AUKUS, they do so not purely on its consequential distortion of Australia’s strategic policy and capabilities, but also on its potential to constrain and distort foreign policy. The silence of the current government in the light of the assaults on long-standing multi-lateral institutions and conventions is a testament to them being correct.
On the Arafura issue, I can’t help but compare the Australian project outcome with the capability Singapore built into its Independence Class LMS – vessels of almost identical dimensions and tonnage. The Singaporean ship seems ideally suited to the complexities emerging in South East Asia while the Australian project outcome is particularly unsuited. With huge pressure emerging in global supply chains for new capabilities, it would seem foolish to shut down one of our few domestic production capabilities.
I cannot understand the scale of the mismanagement of the Arafura project. The government keeps bleating about “speed to capability”. You morons – just contract Luerssen / CIVMEC to construct slightly larger missile-firing corvettes using the Australian supply chain. I’ve rarely seen anything more obvious.
Worrying about Australia’s air, maritime, cyber & space vulnerabilities seems futile when federal governments deny public access to our nation’s Foreign Ownership Register for fear of revealing just how much of Australia’s food, water & energy security (much less real estate) China already owns. Then there’s the state & territory governments who’ve handed China management of strategically vital port, rail & airport infrastructure. And lest we forget our DoD setting departmental speed records in its indefensibly premature disposal of vital combat support platforms like the Taipan helicopter fleet…combined, it’s enough to make a Manchurian Candidate blush.
This is an amazing episode, the Moronian Navy should take note. On another note Civmecs share price is tanking, Moronia strikes again.
Another thing that might be tanking is the US relationship and AUKUS. I’m waiting for the government response to Donald Trump siding with Russia and throwing Ukraine under a bus. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything so outrageous from a world leader. Where is Richard Marles and all of his pro-US blathering about an international rules-based order?
One would hope Canberra is waking up to the fact that we need a contingency plan for when AUKUS gets thrown into Trump’s office waste basket?
On the other hand reality tells us that what will really happen is we’ll be left billions out of pocket with nothing to show for it and the Government of the day issuing a statement along the lines of “It’s all someone else’s fault”
Expecting a lot more CCP provocation in and around our EEZ over the next few months as they test to see if Trump’s US is actually our ally.
Bravo to mental giants like Dutton who cancelled Australia’s fleet of the world’s most advanced attack submarines from France and Marles who buried Australia’s fleet of the world’s most capable medium helicopters from France, Germany & Italy, as Trump begins his world tour of wiping his arse with America’s most gullible allies.
Jusk ask Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan about US pledges of permanence.
Thanks Mike – and I’ll have quite a lot more to say about this as the US unravels under Trump. Security guarantees count for nothing and Australian politicians and the Defence establishment have been deluding themselves for years, as many of us have been warning. The presence of 3 Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea is further illustration – if any were needed – of just how feeble the RAN has become. Where is the USN now to protect us?
The mind boggles at the inane situation where the Government commissions reports( the much lauded DSR & the Surface Fleet Review), Declares That Australia no longer has a 10 years Window to prepare for War, the Air/Sea Gap is no longer a deterrent to an Enemy and then sets out on a path of upgrades and new purchases that we won’t see ( in the case of AUKUS May never see) for Decades. It pains me to say but I believe that if it suited the United States agenda they would cut us loose in an instant. Thankfully for us they can’t afford not to have Australia as a staging point in the Pacific and a handy place to dump excess military hardware.Frankly I can see absolutely no difference between dependance on Chinese Trade and Dependance on the United States Arms Industry. P.S. America is the Continent not a Country.
If Ukraine is any precedent the US will either: a) abandon Australia completely, or b) make us sign over 50% of our mineral wealth in perpetuity before they lift a finger. The government and Defence planners have to wake up to this new reality.
I remember when the G20 was on in Brisbane in 2014. Mr Abbott was going to ‘shirt-front’ Mr Putin. Russia decided to deploy naval vessels to international waters off the coast of Queensland, and Australia could not respond.
In February 2025, the PLA deployed three vessels to conduct a live fire exercise in international waters off the coast of Sydney. Australia cannot respond.
Proving that the stopped clock is at least correct twice per day if the Abbott plan to acquire the Soryu class from MHI’s open production line in 2014 would have seen Australia fielding a fleet of at least 7 boats by now.
Keeping the Osborne facility busy with a fourth and fifth hull of the Hobart class would have ensured that we had enough of that capability to maintain a Pacific and Indian Ocean presence and allow for deep maintenance of the earlier builds.
Instead, a decade on from the G20 sabre rattling, we seemingly have even less capacity.
I can only wobble my head.