Pakistan’s efforts to secure its borders and maintain stability within the country have been the primary factors shaping its defence investments over the years. Historically, challenges including Pakistan’s volatile relationship with its neighbours and regional separatist movements, have played a major role in influencing the country’s defence policy making. These factors are expected to continue to drive Pakistan’s defence budget to an estimated $10 billion by 2028, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Pakistan’s Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2023-28,” reveals that the country’s defense budget witnessed a sharp decline of 14% annual growth rate in 2022. However, it grew from $7.8 billion in 2022 to $8.3 billion in 2023, enabling it to maintain a positive CAGR of 0.5% over the period 2019-23.
Akash Pratim Debbarma, Aerospace & Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Despite facing a severe economic crisis, Pakistan did not cutback its defense budget in 2023, which indicates the country’s emphasis on strengthening its defense capabilities and signifies its desire to ensure stability and security within its borders and fostering tranquillity in the region. The projected growth in the defense budget showcases its intent to responsibly allocate resources to meet the needs of its armed forces.”
As Pakistan charts its path towards modernication, a significant emphasis lies on bolstering its military fixed-wing aircraft capabilities. As per GlobalData estimates, the country is expected to cumulatively allocate $3.6 billion between 2023 and 2033 for procuring various categories of military fixed-wing aircraft. The ongoing and planned procurement programs, such as the acquisition of FC-31, J-10C, PAC PF-X, and JF-17 Block-3 multi-role aircraft, are set to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Pakistan’s aerial prowess.
Debbarma concludes: “Through a strategic partnership with China, Pakistan was able to source advanced weaponry and technologies while nurturing its indigenous defence manufacturing capabilities. Despite its challenges, the country is trying to mix external collaboration and internal innovation to develop a robust domestic defence industry landscape. Pakistan is also organising events like IDEAS 2024, slated to be held in Karachi in 2024, to promote local defence companies and provide opportunities to showcase their defence products to the international markets.”
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